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Quantifying Mortality and Morbidity Impacts from Climate Risks: A Practical Framework for Decision Making | SOA

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Quantifying Mortality and Morbidity Impacts from Climate Risks: A Practical Framework for Decision Making

Background and Purpose

Several studies have demonstrated that climate risks and extreme weather impact both mortality and morbidity. For example, a study from Monash University demonstrated that abnormal hot and cold temperatures resulted in 5 million extra deaths a year[i]. Another study showed that, although the reported death toll of 64 deaths in Puerto Rico following Hurricane Maria in 2017, there were in fact 1,650 more deaths in the six-month period following the hurricane than there were in the same period one year earlier[ii]. Such studies are not limited to mortality. For example, a recent study from the Commonwealth Fund discussed the impact of climate change not only in terms of direct and indirect costs, but also in terms of disruption in the delivery of care to patients[iii].

These studies and others have been valuable in providing proof points regarding the impact of climate change on mortality and morbidity. That said, they tend to be too specific to meet the needs of those who make business decisions like insurers setting life insurance premiums or reserves. As it turns out, decision-makers who want to evaluate incorporating the impact of climate change into their risk management process need a robust decision-making framework, which includes the ability to perform both qualitative and quantitative analyses that enable them to project key metrics, evaluate risk, and comply with regulatory requirements.

The purpose of the research solicited in this request for proposals is to describe how this type of framework might operate, including a rigorous hypothetical or real-life case study. At a minimum, the research should include:

  • Qualitative Analysis. This portion of the case study should emphasize identifying the key risks associated with projecting key metrics, evaluating risk, and complying with regulatory requirements. A description of the sources and methods utilized in the case study is required.
  • Quantitative Analysis. This portion of the case study should address appropriate analytical techniques and describe considerations relevant to identifying and producing credible, relevant, and robust data for use in the analysis.

Research Objective

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee (the Committee) is seeking researchers to quantify mortality and morbidity resulting from climate change and climate-related risks (identifying both short-term and long-term impacts), demonstrate how to apply this in a useful decision-making framework, and then develop a case study that applies the framework. It is expected that the research would address comprehensive climate-related hazards. The following are examples of proposed topics that may be addressed:

  • Considerations for climate-related event and condition peril definitions, damage functions, data sources, and relevant consequential additional mortality and morbidity from climate-related risks and specify the period or time for which the analysis is applicable.
  • Defining the most useful demographic or socioeconomic characteristics for displaying additional mortality and morbidity from climate-related risks, such as age, peril, and/or geographic region, for the purpose of one or more actuarial practice areas or functions (e.g., pricing, reserving, economic capital analysis, and/or risk management).
  • Develop a framework for decision making involved in the process of quantifying additional mortality and morbidity, including identifying the range of practical applications to actuarial practice.
  • Develop a rigorous case study that applies the framework, quantifies additional mortality and morbidity, and demonstrates the practical application for actuaries of the resulting additional mortality and/or morbidity risk from the aggregate (from all relevant perils) of climate-related events and conditions. As part of the case study,
  • demonstrate how the actuarial risk management process can be used for this purpose;
  • highlight “direct” versus “indirect” implications from climate risks on mortality and morbidity – “direct” from individual climate-linked events and “indirect” from more cumulative health issues compounded over the long term of more extreme climate conditions; and
  • consider the impact of factors such as time (forecast period or time from the event), risk characteristics of the analyzed population (e.g., characteristics of affected vulnerable populations), and a range of climate and adaptation scenarios including, but not limited to, a best-estimate and a tail risk scenario.
  • Address considerations for the application of the additional morbidity and mortality. What adjustments may need to be made to apply additional mortality and morbidity to populations for which experience is not available by peril and actuarial area of practice?

Note that the list above is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be researched.

Proposal Requirements

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:

  • Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
  • An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.
  • A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
  • Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.

Please note that as a policy, the SOA Research Institute generally does not provide funding to cover academic institution overhead expenses.

As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix)

  • A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The Committee is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
  • Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.
  • Proposals must be no more than five pages in length exclusive of references and researcher bios.

Selection Process

The Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The Committee is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the Committee will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Questions

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-CC@soa.org.

Notification of Intent to Submit Proposal

If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by July 11, 2025, to Research-CC@soa.org.

Submission of Proposal

Please email your proposal to Research-CC@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than July 21, 2025. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end August 2025.

Conditions

The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the Society of Actuaries in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.

The Society of Actuaries may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.

Conflict of Interest

You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Appendix

The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.

All Contracted Projects

This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.

The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.

Literature Reviews

This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.

The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.

Surveys

This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.

The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.

[i]World’s largest study of global climate related mortality links 5 million deaths a year to abnormal temperatures - Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences

[iiNatural Hazards Center || Excess Mortality and Associated Risk Factors Related to Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

[iii] Climate Change & Health Care Services | Commonwealth Fund