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Obesity and Its Growing Impact on Future Mortality

Background and Purpose

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Research Program Steering Committee (MLPSC) is interested in examining the latest trends in the prevalence of obesity and estimating its impact on future mortality. Obesity is associated with an increased risk of developing several adverse health conditions, including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, osteoarthritis, and some types of cancer, all of which can negatively impact life expectancy. According to the CDC, the prevalence of obesity was more than 40% of adults in the United States between August 2021 and August 2023.1  Recent societal and market developments, particularly the availability of anti-obesity medications (AOMs) such as GLP-1 agonists, may have affected the rates and comorbidity complexities of obesity and its influence on longer-term mortality. Given these developments, a current understanding of how obesity impacts mortality would be helpful for pricing, valuation, and other actuarial functions.

The MLPSC has sponsored prior research (2022) on obesity and its economic costs in both the United States and Canada. That research can be found here:  Obesity Trends and the Impact on Morbidity and Mortality Costs | SOA.  It has also sponsored prior research (2024) on the relationship between obesity and cardiovascular disease: Modeling and Forecasting Premature Cardiovascular Mortality: The Role of Obesity and Education.

1NCHS Data Brief, Number 508, September 2024

With this background in mind, the MLPSC is interested in a further exploration of the relationship between obesity and mortality from a variety of perspectives. The result of this effort is intended to provide a valuable resource for readers to become well-grounded on current trends in obesity and obesity management as these issues relate to mortality and mortality projections.

This topic is of both immediate and long-term importance. As a result, the MLPSC is simultaneously issuing both a request for proposals and a call for essays on this topic. The dual objectives of this effort are to:

  • Sponsor a research project that provides an in-depth and expanded view on a topic related to these issues.
  • Publish a collection of essays that represent a broad range of perspectives on these issues.

The next section of this document describes sample topics of interest for both the request for proposals and call for essays.

Additional submission requirements for proposals and essays are described in the subsequent sections.

Research Objectives

The MLPSC is seeking researchers and essayists to study the impact of trends in obesity and AOMs in the United States on forecasts of future mortality. The research or essay may consider these impacts by various demographic and socio-economic factors, including gender, smoking status, age, comorbidities, length of time a person is considered obese, use of AOMs, and others.

The following illustrate the topics and questions that might be addressed in an essay or research project. Respondents to this RFP/Call for Essays are not required or expected to address all or even any of these topics/questions. Rather, they are encouraged to also consider other questions(s) or topic(s) they deem critical to the work done by the SOA and its members. To maintain a reasonable scope, researchers should be selective in the number of topics/questions they cover.

Responses to this RFP/Call for Essays should clarify the time horizon under consideration in a research project or essay.

Examples of potential areas of study include:

  • What are the key data sources used for understanding the relationship between obesity and mortality rates?  What methods may be used to attribute mortality to obesity?
  • What are the current trends in obesity prevalence? What are the trends in the morbidly obese as a subpopulation?
  • What has the historical relationship between obesity and mortality rates been? How have mortality rates changed as obesity rates have changed? Are there any expected changes in the relationship in the future? Are there other risk factors that can further affect mortality, such as comorbidities or socioeconomic risk characteristics?
  • What measures, such as body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference, are used in understanding obesity as a condition and in relation to mortality?  What are their advantages/disadvantages?  Should differences in mortality be solely based on these measures, or are other underlying measures or factors useful in supplementing them? 
  • What are the current trends in obesity management? How do these trends vary by population segment?  How effective are they?
  • How does mortality experience differ between people who lost weight with and without AOMs?
  • Does mortality experience differ between people who lost weight and kept it off and those who have regained or regained and relost weight?
  • How does the U.S. experience compare to trends in other countries?

Selection Process

The MLPSC will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee both the research and call for essays. The MLPSC/POG is responsible for recommending the proposal(s) to be funded (if any), as well as recommending any prize winners from the Call for Essays. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the POG and MLPSC will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Rules for Submission of Essays

Timeline

The deadline for submissions is August 1, 2025. Essays will be published as soon as possible in a formal collection.

Length and Instructions for Submission

Essays must be submitted in English with a desired length of between 500 to 2,500 words. There is no requirement for formal or extensive footnoting.

Author information must be submitted with the essay and include name; credentials or designations (if appropriate); title; organization/company; e-mail address; and phone number. Please provide all author information at the beginning of the essay. 

Essays that contain any overt political statements, commercial content, and other inappropriate material will not be accepted. Articles must comply with the SOA's antitrust guidelines.

Please submit your essay via e–mail to Research-ML@soa.org.

Awards

Up to $5,000 in award money has been allocated for this call for essays.  The POG will select the leading essays and determine how to allocate the award money among them.  Consideration will be given to creativity, originality and the extent to which an idea might help promote further thought in this area.  In exchange for award money, selected authors will be required to assign all copyrights in their essays to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Authors are ineligible for awards if an essay is based on an SOA Research Institute-sponsored and funded research study conducted by the author. However, authors are welcome to submit such essays for publication consideration.

Publication and Presentation

Depending on how many essays are received and the range of the topic areas, a suitable format for electronic publication and dissemination will be selected.  Essays may also be presented at an SOA meeting, webcast, or other professional development event.

In addition, other venues for publication or presentation of the ideas outside of the Institute will be considered. It is hoped that publication of the collected essays will further knowledge and stimulate discussion as well as promote future efforts in this area. 

Rights Granted

Please understand that by submitting an essay for consideration, the essay author(s) is granting to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute an unlimited license to print or republish their essay, with proper attribution given to the author(s).  

Questions

Please direct any questions regarding this Call for Essays to Research-ML@soa.org.

Rules for Submission of Research Proposals

Proposal Requirements

It is anticipated that the deliverables from a research project, focusing on mortality impacts, will include:

  • A literature review.
  • An assessment or synthesis of the literature.
  • Development of a perspective on future trends (based on the synthesis, expert opinion, and/or independent analysis/modeling).
  • Commentary on how findings can be leveraged by actuaries and those in other related disciplines.
  • A report of study findings to be made available on the Society of Actuaries (SOA) website. The report will include the results of the analysis as well as the data and methodologies used to identify and quantify risks.
  • Presentation of the results at an SOA conference, Webcast, and/or through other media.

Members of POG for this study will be available to provide feedback and guidance to the researcher as needed.

Proposal Requirements

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:

  1. Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education, and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted. A multidisciplinary team, including a medical professional/clinician, is preferred but not required for this study.
  2. An outline of the approach to be used (e.g., literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis. The proposal should also include commentary on how the research contributes to the body of knowledge on this topic.
  3. A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools, or other resources.
  4. Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
    Please note that as a policy, the SOA Research Institute generally does not provide funding to cover academic institution overhead expenses.
    As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix)
  5. A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The MLPSC is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
  6. Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.

Questions

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-ML@soa.org.

Notification of Intent to Submit Proposal

If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by July 15, 2025 to Research-ML@soa.org.

Submission of Proposal

Please email your proposal to Research-ML@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than August 1, 2025. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end of September 2025.

Conditions

The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute/MLPSC reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute/MLPSC also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute/MLPSC plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute/MLPSC may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the Society of Actuaries Research Institute/MLPSC in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute/MLPSC may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates, and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute/MLPSC, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.

Conflict of Interest

You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities, and programs of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute/MLPSC.

Appendix

The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.

All Contracted Projects

This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.

The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.

Literature Reviews

This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.

The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.

Surveys

This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.

The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.